shapr: Explaining individual machine learning predictions with Shapley values
Author: Martin Jullum, Camilla Lingjærde, Lars Henry Berge Olsen & Nikolai Sellereite

# `shapr`: Explaining individual machine learning predictions with Shapley values

#### Martin Jullum, Camilla Lingjærde, Lars Henry Berge Olsen & Nikolai Sellereite

# Introduction

The `shapr` package implements an extended version of the Kernel SHAP method for approximating Shapley values (Lundberg and Lee (2017)), in which dependence between the features is taken into account (Aas, Jullum, and Løland (2021)).

Estimation of Shapley values is of interest when attempting to explain complex machine learning models. Of existing work on interpreting individual predictions, Shapley values is regarded to be the only model-agnostic explanation method with a solid theoretical foundation (Lundberg and Lee (2017)). Kernel SHAP is a computationally efficient approximation to Shapley values in higher dimensions, but it assumes independent features. Aas, Jullum, and Løland (2021) extends the Kernel SHAP method to handle dependent features, resulting in more accurate approximations to the true Shapley values. See the paper (Aas, Jullum, and Løland (2021)) for further details.

# Overview of Package

## Functionality

Here is an overview of the main functions. You can read their documentation and see examples with `?function_name`.

Main functions in the `shapr` package.
Function Name | Description
--- | ---
`explain` | Computes Shapley values for a model and a set of observations to explain.
`explain_forecast` | Analogous to `explain`, but for explaining forecasts from time series models.
`plot.shapr` | Plots the individual prediction explanations. Uses the `ggplot` and `ggbeeswarm` package.
`plot_SV_several_approaches` | Compare the individual prediction explanations obtained from different approaches.
`plot_MSEv_eval_crit` | Plots the \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) criterion to evaluate the performance of the approach.
`print.shapr` | Prints the Shapley values (default), their standard deviation or estimates of the MSE.
`get_results` | Extracts and returns a summary of the Shapley value computation.
`summary.shapr` | Returns a `summary.shapr` object, and prints a formatted summary when called interactively.

The `shapr` package implements Kernel SHAP estimation of dependence-aware Shapley values with eight different Monte Carlo-based approaches for estimating the conditional distributions of the data, namely `"empirical"`, `"gaussian"`, `"copula"`, `"ctree"`, `"vaeac"`, `"categorical"`, `"timeseries"`, and `"independence"`. `shapr` has also implemented two regression-based approaches `"regression_separate"` and `"regression_surrogate"`. See Estimation approaches and plotting functionality below for examples. It is also possible to combine the different approaches, see the combined approach.

The package allows for parallelized computation through the `future` package, see Parallelization for details.

The level of detail in the output can be controlled through the `verbose` argument. In addition, progress updates on the process of estimating the `v(S)`’s (and training the `"vaeac"` model) is available through the `progressr` package, supporting progress updates also for parallelized computation. See Verbosity and progress updates for details.

Moreover, the default behavior is to estimate the Shapley values iteratively, with an increasing number of feature coalitions being added, and to stop estimation as the estimated Shapley values have achieved a certain level of stability. More information about this is provided in Iterative estimation The above, combined with batch computation of the `v(S)` values, enables fast and accurate estimation of the Shapley values in a memory-friendly manner.

The package provides functionality for printing and summarizing the Shapley value computation, as well as extracting objects created during computation, see Summary, Printing, and Result Extraction.

The package also provides functionality for computing Shapley values for groups of features, and custom function explanation, see Advanced usage. Finally, explanation of multiple output time series forecasting models are discussed in Explaining forecasting models.

## Default behavior of `explain`

Below we provide brief descriptions of the most important parts of the default behavior of the `explain` function.

By default `explain` always computes feature-wise Shapley values. Groups of features can be explained by providing the feature groups through the `group` argument.

When there are five or fewer features (or feature groups), iterative estimation is by default disabled. The reason for this is that it is usually faster to estimate the Shapley values for all possible coalitions (`v(S)`), than to estimate the uncertainty of the Shapley values, and potentially stop estimation earlier. While iterative estimation is the default starting from six features, it is mainly when there are more than ten features, that it is most beneficial, and can save a lot of computation time. The reason for this is that the number of possible coalitions grows exponentially. These defaults can be overridden by setting the `iterative` argument to `TRUE` or `FALSE`. When using the `iterative` argument, the estimation for an observation is stopped when all Shapley value standard deviations are below `t` times the range of the Shapley values. The `t` value controls the convergence tolerance, defaults to 0.02, and can be set through the `iterative_args$convergence_tol` argument, see iterative estimation for more details.

As opposed to Kernel SHAP estimation as originally proposed in (Lundberg and Lee (2017)), `shapr`, by reweights the samples according to the “Paired c-kernel” strategy described in Olsen and Jullum (2025) to reduce the estimation variance and thereby improve the convergence speed.

Since the iterativeness default changes based on the number of features (or feature groups), the default is also to have no upper bound on the number of coalitions considered. This can be controlled through the `max_n_coalitions` argument.

# Kernel SHAP and dependence-aware estimators

## The Kernel SHAP Method

Assume a predictive model \(f(\boldsymbol{x})\) for a response value \(y\) with features \(\boldsymbol{x}\in \mathbb{R}^M\), trained on a training set, and that we want to explain the predictions for new sets of data. This may be done using ideas from cooperative game theory, letting a single prediction take the place of the game being played and the features the place of the players. Letting \(N\) denote the set of all \(M\) players, and \(S \subseteq N\) be a subset of \(|S|\) players, the “contribution” function \(v(S)\) describes the total expected sum of payoffs the members of \(S\) can obtain by cooperation. The Shapley value (Shapley (1953)) is one way to distribute the total gains to the players, assuming that they all collaborate. The amount that player \(i\) gets is then

\[\phi_i(v) = \phi_i = \sum_{S \subseteq N \setminus\{i\}} \frac{|S| ! (M-| S| - 1)!}{M!}(v(S\cup \{i\})-v(S)),\]

that is, a weighted mean over all subsets \(S\) of players not containing player \(i\). Lundberg and Lee (2017) define the contribution function for a certain subset \(S\) of these features \(\boldsymbol{x}_S\) as \(v(S) = \mbox{E}[f(\boldsymbol{x})|\boldsymbol{x}_S]\), the expected output of the predictive model conditional on the feature values of the subset. Lundberg and Lee (2017) names this type of Shapley values SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation) values. Since the conditional expectations can be written as

\[\begin{equation} \label{eq:CondExp} E[f(\boldsymbol{x})|\boldsymbol{x}_s=\boldsymbol{x}_S^*] = E[f(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{S}},\boldsymbol{x}_S)|\boldsymbol{x}_S=\boldsymbol{x}_S^*] = \int f(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{S}},\boldsymbol{x}_S^*)\,p(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{S}}|\boldsymbol{x}_S=\boldsymbol{x}_S^*)d\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{S}}, \end{equation}\]

the conditional distributions \(p(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{S}}|\boldsymbol{x}_S=\boldsymbol{x}_S^*)\) are needed to compute the contributions. The Kernel SHAP method of Lundberg and Lee (2017) assumes feature independence, so that \(p(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{S}}|\boldsymbol{x}_S=\boldsymbol{x}_S^*)=p(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{S}})\). If samples \(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{S}}^{k}, k=1,\ldots,K\), from \(p(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{S}}|\boldsymbol{x}_S=\boldsymbol{x}_S^*)\) are available, the conditional expectation above can be approximated by

\[\begin{equation} v_{\text{KerSHAP}}(S) = \frac{1}{K}\sum_{k=1}^K f(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{S}}^{k},\boldsymbol{x}_S^*). \end{equation}\]

In Kernel SHAP, \(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{S}}^{k}, k=1,\ldots,K\) are sampled from the \(\bar{S}\)-part of the training data, independently of \(\boldsymbol{x}_{S}\). This is motivated by using the training set as the empirical distribution of \(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{S}}\), and assuming that \(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{S}}\) is independent of \(\boldsymbol{x}_S=\boldsymbol{x}_S^*\). Due to the independence assumption, if the features in a given model are highly dependent, the Kernel SHAP method may give a completely wrong answer. This can be avoided by estimating the conditional distribution \(p(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{S}}|\boldsymbol{x}_S=\boldsymbol{x}_S^*)\) directly and generating samples from this distribution. With this small change, the contributions and Shapley values may then be approximated as in the ordinary Kernel SHAP framework. Aas, Jullum, and Løland (2021) propose three different approaches for estimating the conditional probabilities which are implemented: `empirical`, `gaussian` and `copula`. The package also implements the `ctree` method from Redelmeier, Jullum, and Aas (2020), the `vaeac` method from Olsen et al. (2022) and a `categorical` for categorical data. The original `independence` approach of Lundberg and Lee (2017) is also available. The methods may also be combined, such that e.g. one method is used when conditioning on a small number of features, while another method is used otherwise. The `shapr` package also supports directly estimating the contribution function using regression. We briefly introduce the regression-based methods below, but we refer to the separate regression vignette (Shapley value explanations using the regression paradigm) and Olsen et al. (2024) for an in-depth explanation of the regression paradigm.

## Multivariate Gaussian Distribution Approach

The first approach arises from the assumption that the feature vector \(\boldsymbol{x}\) stems from a multivariate Gaussian distribution with some mean vector \(\boldsymbol{\mu}\) and covariance matrix \(\boldsymbol{\Sigma}\). Under this assumption, the conditional distribution \(p(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{\mathcal{S}}} |\boldsymbol{x}_{\mathcal{S}}=\boldsymbol{x}_{\mathcal{S}}^*)\) is also multivariate Gaussian
\(\text{N}_{|\bar{\mathcal{S}}|}(\boldsymbol{\mu}_{\bar{\mathcal{S}}|\mathcal{S}},\boldsymbol{\Sigma}_{\bar{\mathcal{S}}|\mathcal{S}})\), with analytical expressions for the conditional mean vector \(\boldsymbol{\mu}_{\bar{\mathcal{S}}|\mathcal{S}}\) and covariance matrix \(\boldsymbol{\Sigma}_{\bar{\mathcal{S}}|\mathcal{S}}\), see Aas, Jullum, and Løland (2021) for details. Hence, instead of sampling from the marginal empirical distribution of \(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{\mathcal{S}}}\) approximated by the training data, we can sample from the Gaussian conditional distribution, which is fitted using the training data. Using the resulting samples \(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{\mathcal{S}}}^k, k=1,\ldots,K\), the conditional expectations be approximated as in the Kernel SHAP.

## Gaussian Copula Approach

If the features are far from multivariate Gaussian, an alternative approach is to instead represent the marginals by their empirical distributions, and model the dependence structure by a Gaussian copula. Assuming a Gaussian copula, we may convert the marginals of the training data to Gaussian features using their empirical distributions, and then fit a multivariate Gaussian distribution to these.

To produce samples from the conditional distribution \(p(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{\mathcal{S}}} |\boldsymbol{x}_{\mathcal{S}}=\boldsymbol{x}_{\mathcal{S}}^*)\), we convert the marginals of \(\boldsymbol{x}_{\mathcal{S}}\) to Gaussians, sample from the conditional Gaussian distribution as above, and convert the marginals of the samples back to the original distribution. Those samples are then used to approximate the sample from the resulting multivariate Gaussian conditional distribution. While other copulas may be used, the Gaussian copula has the benefit that we may use the analytical expressions for the conditionals \(\boldsymbol{\mu}_{\bar{\mathcal{S}}|\mathcal{S}}\) and \(\boldsymbol{\Sigma}_{\bar{\mathcal{S}}|\mathcal{S}}\). Finally, we may convert the marginals back to their original distribution, and use the resulting samples to approximate the conditional expectations as in Kernel SHAP.

## Empirical Conditional Distribution Approach

If both the dependence structure and the marginal distributions of \(\boldsymbol{x}\) are very far from the Gaussian, neither of the two aforementioned methods will work very well. Few methods exist for the non-parametric estimation of conditional densities, and the classic kernel estimator (Rosenblatt (1956)) for non-parametric density estimation suffers greatly from the curse of dimensionality and does not provide a way to generate samples from the estimated distribution. For such situations, Aas, Jullum, and Løland (2021) propose an empirical conditional approach to sample approximately from \(p(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{\mathcal{S}}}|\boldsymbol{x}_{\mathcal{S}}^*)\). The idea is to compute weights \(w_{\mathcal{S}}(\boldsymbol{x}^*,\boldsymbol{x}^i),\ i=1,...,n_{\text{train}}\) for all training instances based on their Mahalanobis distances (in the \(S\) subset only) to the instance \(\boldsymbol{x}^*\) to be explained. Instead of sampling from this weighted (conditional) empirical distribution, Aas, Jullum, and Løland (2021) suggests a more efficient variant, using only the \(K\) instances with the largest weights:

\[v_{\text{condKerSHAP}}(\mathcal{S}) = \frac{\sum_{k=1}^K w_{\mathcal{S}}(\boldsymbol{x}^*, \boldsymbol{x}^{[k]}) f(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{\mathcal{S}}}^{[k]}, \boldsymbol{x}_{\mathcal{S}}^*)}{\sum_{k=1}^K w_{\mathcal{S}}(\boldsymbol{x}^*,\boldsymbol{x}^{[k]})},\]

The number of samples \(K\) to be used in the approximate prediction can for instance be chosen such that the \(K\) largest weights accounts for a fraction \(\eta\), for example \(0.9\), of the total weight. If \(K\) exceeds a certain limit, for instance \(5,000\), it might be set to that limit. A bandwidth parameter \(\sigma\) used to scale the weights, must also be specified. This choice may be viewed as a bias-variance trade-off. A small \(\sigma\) puts most of the weight to a few of the closest training observations and thereby gives low bias, but high variance. When \(\sigma \rightarrow \infty\), this method converges to the original Kernel SHAP assuming feature independence. Typically, when the features are highly dependent, a small \(\sigma\) is typically needed such that the bias does not dominate. Aas, Jullum, and Løland (2021) show that a proper criterion for selecting \(\sigma\) is a small-sample-size corrected version of the AIC known as AICc. As calculation of it is computationally intensive, an approximate version of the selection criterion is also suggested. Details on this are found in Aas, Jullum, and Løland (2021).

## Conditional Inference Tree Approach

The previous three methods can only handle numerical data. This means that if the data contains categorical/discrete/ordinal features, the features first have to be one-hot encoded. When the number of levels/features is large, this is not feasible. An approach that handles mixed (i.e., numerical, categorical, discrete, ordinal) features and both univariate and multivariate responses is conditional inference trees (Hothorn, Hornik, and Zeileis (2006)).

Conditional inference trees are a special tree-fitting procedure that relies on hypothesis tests to choose both the splitting feature and the splitting point. The tree fitting procedure is sequential: first a splitting feature is chosen (the feature that is least independent of the response), and then a splitting point is chosen for this feature. This decreases the chance of being biased towards features with many splits (Hothorn, Hornik, and Zeileis (2006)).

We use conditional inference trees (ctree) to model the conditional distribution, \(p(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{\mathcal{S}}}|\boldsymbol{x}_{\mathcal{S}}^*)\), found in the Shapley methodology. First, we fit a different conditional inference tree to each conditional distribution. Once a tree is fit for given dependent features, the end node of \(\boldsymbol{x}_{\mathcal{S}}^*\) is found. Then, we sample from this end node and use the resulting samples, \(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{\mathcal{S}}}^k, k=1,\ldots,K\), when approximating the conditional expectations as in Kernel SHAP. See Redelmeier, Jullum, and Aas (2020) for more details.

The conditional inference trees are fit using the party or partykit packages (Hothorn and Zeileis (2015)).

## Variational AutoEncoder with Arbitrary Conditioning (vaeac) Approach

Another approach that supports mixed features is the Variational AutoEncoder with Arbitrary Conditioning (Olsen et al. (2022)), abbreviated to `vaeac`. The `vaeac` is an extension of the regular variational autoencoder (Kingma and Welling (2014)), but instead of giving a probabilistic representation of the distribution \(p(\boldsymbol{x})\) it gives a probabilistic representation of the conditional distribution \(p(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{\mathcal{S}}} \mid \boldsymbol{x}_{\mathcal{S}})\), for all possible feature subsets \(\mathcal{S}\subseteq\mathcal{M}\) simultaneously, where \(\mathcal{M}\) is the set of all features. That is, only a single `vaeac` model is needed to model all conditional distributions.

The `vaeac` consists of three neural networks: a full encoder, a masked encoder, and a decoder. The encoders map the full and masked/conditional input representations, i.e., \(\boldsymbol{x}\) and \(\boldsymbol{x}_{\mathcal{S}}\), respectively, to latent probabilistic representations. Sampled instances from this latent probabilistic representations are sent to the decoder, which maps them back to the feature space and provides a samplable probabilistic representation for the unconditioned features \(\boldsymbol{x}_{\bar{\mathcal{S}}}\). The full encoder is only used during the training phase of the `vaeac` model to guide the training process of the masked encoder, as the former relies on the full input sample \(\boldsymbol{x}\), which is not accessible in the deployment phase (when we generate the Monte Carlo samples), as we only have access to \(\boldsymbol{x}_{\mathcal{S}}\). The networks are trained by minimizing a variational lower bound. See Section 3 in Olsen et al. (2022) for an in-depth introduction to the `vaeac` methodology. We use the `vaeac` model at the epoch which obtains the lowest validation IWAE score to generate the Monte Carlo samples used in the Shapley value computations.

We fit the `vaeac` model using the R package torch (Falbel and Luraschi (2023)). The main parameters are the number of layers in the networks (`vaeac.depth`), the width of the layers (`vaeac.width`), the number of dimensions in the latent space (`vaeac.latent_dim`), the activation function between the layers in the networks (`vaeac.activation_function`), the learning rate in the ADAM optimizer (`vaeac.lr`), the number of `vaeac` models to initiate to remedy poorly initiated model parameter values (`vaeac.n_vaeacs_initialize`), and the number of learning epochs (`vaeac.epochs`). See `?shapr::setup_approach.vaeac` for a more detailed description of the parameters.

There are additional extra parameters which can be set by including a named list in the call to the `explain()` function. For example, we can change the batch size to 32 by including `vaeac.extra_parameters = list(vaeac.batch_size = 32)` as an argument in the `explain()` function. See `?shapr::vaeac_get_extra_para_default` for a description of the possible extra parameters to the `vaeac` approach. Note that the main parameters are entered as arguments directly in `explain()` function, while the extra parameters are specified through a named list called `vaeac.extra_parameters`.

## Categorical Approach

When the features are all categorical, we can estimate the conditional expectations using basic statistical formulas. For example, if we have three features, \(x_1, x_2, x_3\) with three levels each (indicated as 1, 2, 3), and we are provided with a table of counts indicating how many times each combination of feature values occurs, we can estimate the marginal and conditional probabilities as follows. Marginal probabilities are estimated by dividing the number of times a given feature (or features) takes on a certain value in the data set with the total number of observations in the data set. Conditional probabilities (for example, \(P(X_1 = 1 | X_2 = 1)\)) are estimated by first subsetting the data set to reflect the conditioning (i.e., extracting all rows where \(X_2 = 1\)), and then dividing the number of times the feature on the left hand side of \(|\) takes the given value in this subset by the total number of observations in this subset. Once the marginal and conditional probabilities are estimated for all combinations of feature values, each conditional expectation can be calculated. For example, the expected value of \(X_1\) given \(X_2 = 1\) and \(X_3 = 2\) is \[E(X_1|X_2, X_3) = \sum_{x}x P(X_1 = x | X_2=1, X_3=2) = \sum_{x} x \frac{P(X_1 = x, X_2 = 1, X_3 = 2)}{P(X_2=1, X_3=2)}.\]

## Separate and Surrogate Regression Approaches

Another paradigm for estimating the contribution function is the regression paradigm. In contrast to the methods above, which belong to the Monte Carlo paradigm, the regression-based methods use regression models to estimate the contribution function \(v(S) = E[f(\boldsymbol{x})|\boldsymbol{x}_S = \boldsymbol{x}_S^*]\) directly. The separate regression method class fits a separate regression model for each coalition \(S\), while the surrogate regression method class fits a single regression model to simultaneously predict the contribution function for all coalitions. We refer to Olsen et al. (2024) for when one should use the different paradigms, method classes, and methods.

In a separate vignette (Shapley value explanations using the regression paradigm), we elaborate and demonstrate the regression paradigm. We describe how to specify the regression model, enable automatic cross-validation of the model’s hyperparameters, and apply pre-processing steps to the data before fitting the regression models. Olsen et al. (2024) divides the regression paradigm into the separate and surrogate regression method classes. In the separate vignette, we briefly introduce the two method classes. For an in-depth explanation, we refer the reader to Sections 3.5 and 3.6 in Olsen et al. (2024).

# Estimation approaches and plotting functionality

The following example shows how a simple `xgboost` model is trained using the `airquality` dataset, and how `shapr` can be used to explain the individual predictions. Since which approach should be used to estimate the contribution functions will depend on the type of data one is working with, the user must specify the approach to be used through the `approach` argument. Allowed values are `"gaussian"`, `"copula"`, `"empirical"`, `"ctree"`, `"vaeac"`, `"categorical"`, `"timeseries"`, `"independence"`, `"regression_separate"`, and `"regression_surrogate"`.

First we load the shapr package

    library(shapr)

    library(xgboost)
    library(data.table)
    #> data.table 1.18.0 using 11 threads (see ?getDTthreads).  Latest news: r-datatable.com

    data("airquality")
    data <- data.table::as.data.table(airquality)
    data <- data[complete.cases(data), ]

    x_var <- c("Solar.R", "Wind", "Temp", "Month")
    y_var <- "Ozone"

    ind_x_explain <- 1:6
    x_train <- data[-ind_x_explain, ..x_var]
    y_train <- data[-ind_x_explain, get(y_var)]
    x_explain <- data[ind_x_explain, ..x_var]

    # Set seed for reproducibility
    set.seed(123)

    # Fitting a basic xgboost model to the training data
    model <- xgboost::xgboost(
      x = x_train,
      y = y_train,
      nround = 20,
      verbosity = 0
    )

    # Specifying the phi_0, i.e. the expected prediction without any features
    p0 <- mean(y_train)

    # Computing the actual Shapley values with Kernel SHAP accounting for feature dependence using
    # the empirical (conditional) distribution approach with bandwidth parameter sigma = 0.1 (default)
    explanation <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "empirical",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:36:48
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #> • Approach: empirical
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_164856ce9500.rds'
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.

    # Printing the Shapley values for the test data.
    # For more information about the interpretation of the values in the table, see ?shapr::explain.
    print(explanation)
    #>    explain_id  none Solar.R   Wind   Temp  Month
    #>         <int> <num>   <num>  <num>  <num>  <num>
    #> 1:          1  43.1  12.315   2.78 -27.98  -2.07
    #> 2:          2  43.1  -8.514   4.69 -13.96  -7.85
    #> 3:          3  43.1  -2.767 -10.27  -9.95  -3.87
    #> 4:          4  43.1  -0.945  -4.18 -14.06  -6.80
    #> 5:          5  43.1   4.058  -2.07 -11.94 -12.02
    #> 6:          6  43.1  -0.290  -7.28 -13.46  -6.50

    # Plot the resulting explanations for observations 1 and 6
    plot(explanation, bar_plot_phi0 = FALSE, index_x_explain = c(1, 6))

There are multiple plot options specified by the `plot_type` argument in `plot`. The `waterfall` option shows the changes in the prediction score due to each feature’s contribution (their Shapley values):

There are multiple plot options specified by the `plot_type` argument in `plot`. The `waterfall` option shows the changes in the prediction score due to each feature’s contribution (their Shapley values):

    plot(explanation, plot_type = "waterfall", index_x_explain = c(1, 6))

The other two plot options, `"beeswarm"` and `"scatter"`, can be useful when you have many observations that you want to explain. For the purpose of illustration, we explain the whole `airquality` dataset (including the training data) for these plot types. The `plot_type = "beeswarm"` summarizes the distribution of the Shapley values along the x-axis across all features. Each point gives the Shapley value of a given instance, where the points are colored by the feature value of that instance:

    x_explain_many <- data[, ..x_var]
    explanation_plot <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain_many,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "empirical",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:36:53
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: empirical
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 111
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_16481bb4fea1.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.
    plot(explanation_plot, plot_type = "beeswarm")

The `plot_type = "scatter"` plots the feature values on the x-axis and Shapley values on the y-axis, as well as (optionally) a background scatter_hist showing the distribution of the feature data:

    plot(explanation_plot, plot_type = "scatter", scatter_hist = TRUE)

We can use mixed (i.e., continuous, categorical, ordinal) data with `ctree` or `vaeac`. Use `ctree` with mixed data in the following manner:

    # convert the month variable to a factor
    data[, Month_factor := as.factor(Month)]

    data_train_cat <- data[-ind_x_explain, ]
    data_explain_cat <- data[ind_x_explain, ]

    x_var_cat <- c("Solar.R", "Wind", "Temp", "Month_factor")

    x_train_cat <- data_train_cat[, ..x_var_cat]
    x_explain_cat <- data_explain_cat[, ..x_var_cat]

    # Fitting an lm model here as xgboost does not handle categorical features directly
    # (workaround in example below)
    lm_formula <- as.formula(paste0(y_var, " ~ ", paste0(x_var_cat, collapse = " + ")))

    model_lm_cat <- lm(lm_formula, data_train_cat)

    p0 <- mean(y_train)
    explanation_lm_cat <- explain(
      model = model_lm_cat,
      x_explain = x_explain_cat,
      x_train = x_train_cat,
      approach = "ctree",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:02
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <lm>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: ctree
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_164875508e39.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.

    # Plot the resulting explanations for observations 1 and 6, excluding
    # the no-covariate effect
    plot(explanation_lm_cat, bar_plot_phi0 = FALSE, index_x_explain = c(1, 6))

We can specify parameters used to build the conditional inference trees in the following manner. The default values are based on Hothorn, Hornik, and Zeileis (2006).

    # Use the conditional inference tree approach
    # We can specify parameters used to build trees by specifying mincriterion,
    # minsplit, minbucket
    explanation_ctree <- explain(
      model = model_lm_cat,
      x_explain = x_explain_cat,
      x_train = x_train_cat,
      approach = "ctree",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1,
      ctree.mincriterion = 0.80,
      ctree.minsplit = 20,
      ctree.minbucket = 20
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:04
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <lm>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: ctree
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_1648774d65a4.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.
    # Default parameters (based on (Hothorn, 2006)) are:
    # mincriterion = 0.95
    # minsplit = 20
    # minbucket = 7

If all features are categorical, one may use the categorical approach as follows:

    # For the sake of illustration, convert ALL features to factors
    data[, Solar.R_factor := as.factor(cut(Solar.R, 10))]
    data[, Wind_factor := as.factor(cut(Wind, 3))]
    data[, Temp_factor := as.factor(cut(Temp, 2))]
    data[, Month_factor := as.factor(Month)]

    data_train_all_cat <- data[-ind_x_explain, ]
    data_explain_all_cat <- data[ind_x_explain, ]

    x_var_all_cat <- c("Solar.R_factor", "Wind_factor", "Temp_factor", "Month_factor")

    x_train_all_cat <- data_train_all_cat[, ..x_var_all_cat]
    x_explain_all_cat <- data_explain_all_cat[, ..x_var_all_cat]

    # Fit an lm model here
    lm_formula_all_cat <- as.formula(paste0(y_var, " ~ ", paste0(x_var_all_cat, collapse = " + ")))

    model_lm_all_cat <- lm(lm_formula_all_cat, data_train_all_cat)

    explanation_cat_method <- explain(
      model = model_lm_all_cat,
      x_explain = x_explain_all_cat,
      x_train = x_train_all_cat,
      approach = "categorical",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:05
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <lm>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: categorical
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_16484bf4972f.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.

Shapley values can be used to explain any predictive model. For predictive models taking time series as input, `approach="timeseries"` can be used. In such models, joint behavior of consecutive time points is often more important for the outcome than the single time points. Therefore, it makes sense to derive Shapley value segments of the time series instead of for each single time point. In `shapr` this can be achieved through the `group` attribute. Other optional parameters of `approach="timeseries"` are `timeseries.fixed_sigma` and `timeseries.bounds` (a vector indicating upper and lower bounds of the time series if necessary).

    # Simulate time series data with AR(1)-structure
    set.seed(1)
    data_ts <- data.frame(matrix(NA, ncol = 41, nrow = 4))
    for (n in 1:100) {
      set.seed(n)
      e <- rnorm(42, mean = 0, sd = 1)

      m_1 <- 0
      for (i in 2:length(e)) {
        m_1[i] <- 1 + 0.8 * m_1[i - 1] + e[i]
      }
      data_ts[n, ] <- m_1[-1]
    }
    data_ts <- data.table::as.data.table(data_ts)

    x_var_ts <- paste0("X", 1:40)
    y_var_ts <- "X41"

    ind_x_explain <- 1:6
    data_ts_train <- data_ts[-ind_x_explain]

    # Creating a predictive model (for illustration just predicting the next point in the time series with a linear model)
    lm_ts_formula <- as.formula(X41 ~ .)
    model_lm_ts <- lm(lm_ts_formula, data_ts_train)

    x_explain_ts <- data_ts[ind_x_explain, ..x_var_ts]
    x_train_ts <- data_ts[-ind_x_explain, ..x_var_ts]

    # Splitting the time series into 4 segments
    group_ts <- list(
      S1 = paste0("X", 1:10),
      S2 = paste0("X", 11:20),
      S3 = paste0("X", 21:30),
      S4 = paste0("X", 31:40)
    )

    p0_ts <- mean(unlist(data_ts_train[, ..y_var_ts]))

    explanation_timeseries <- explain(
      model = model_lm_ts,
      x_explain = x_explain_ts,
      x_train = x_train_ts,
      approach = "timeseries",
      phi0 = p0_ts,
      seed = 1,
      group = group_ts
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:05
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_groups = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_groups = 16`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <lm>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: timeseries
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #>
    #> • Number of group-wise Shapley values: 4
    #>
    #> • Feature groups: S1: {"X1", "X2", "X3", "X4", "X5",
    #> "X6", "X7", "X8", "X9", "X10"}; S2: {"X11", "X12",
    #> "X13", "X14", "X15", "X16", "X17", "X18", "X19",
    #> "X20"}; S3: {"X21", "X22", "X23", "X24", "X25",
    #> "X26", "X27", "X28", "X29", "X30"}; S4: {"X31",
    #> "X32", "X33", "X34", "X35", "X36", "X37", "X38",
    #> "X39", "X40"}
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_1648803cb6c.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.

## MSEv evaluation criterion

We can use the \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) criterion proposed by Frye et al. (2021), and later used by, e.g., Olsen et al. (2022) and Olsen et al. (2024), to evaluate and rank the approaches/methods. The \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) is given by

\[\begin{align} \label{eq:MSE_v} \operatorname{MSE}_{v} = \operatorname{MSE}_{v}(\text{method } \texttt{q}) = \frac{1}{N_\mathcal{S}} \sum_{\mathcal{S} \in \mathcal{P}^*(\mathcal{M})} \frac{1}{N_\text{explain}} \sum_{i=1}^{N_\text{explain}} \left( f(\boldsymbol{x}^{[i]}) - {\hat{v}}_{\texttt{q}}(\mathcal{S}, \boldsymbol{x}^{[i]})\right)^2\!, \end{align}\]

where \({\hat{v}}_{\texttt{q}}\) is the estimated contribution function using method \(\texttt{q}\) and \(N_\mathcal{S} = |\mathcal{P}^*(\mathcal{M})| = 2^M-2\), i.e., we have removed the empty (\(\mathcal{S} = \emptyset\)) and the grand combinations (\(\mathcal{S} = \mathcal{M}\)) as they are method independent. Meaning that these two combinations do not influence the ranking of the methods as the methods are not used to compute the contribution function for them.

The motivation behind the \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) criterion is that \(\mathbb{E}_\mathcal{S}\mathbb{E}_{\boldsymbol{x}} (v_{\texttt{true}}(\mathcal{S},\boldsymbol{x}) - \hat{v}_{\texttt{q}}(\mathcal{S}, \boldsymbol{x}))^2\) can be decomposed as

\[\begin{align} \label{eq:expectation_decomposition} \begin{split} \mathbb{E}_\mathcal{S}\mathbb{E}_{\boldsymbol{x}} (v_{\texttt{true}}(\mathcal{S}, \boldsymbol{x})- \hat{v}_{\texttt{q}}(\mathcal{S}, \boldsymbol{x}))^2 &= \mathbb{E}_\mathcal{S}\mathbb{E}_{\boldsymbol{x}} (f(\boldsymbol{x}) - \hat{v}_{\texttt{q}}(\mathcal{S}, \boldsymbol{x}))^2 \\ &\phantom{\,\,\,\,\,\,\,}- \mathbb{E}_\mathcal{S}\mathbb{E}_{\boldsymbol{x}} (f(\boldsymbol{x})-v_{\texttt{true}}(\mathcal{S}, \boldsymbol{x}))^2, \end{split} \end{align}\]

see Appendix A in Covert, Lundberg, and Lee (2020). The first term on the right-hand side of the equation above can be estimated by \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\), while the second term is a fixed (unknown) constant not influenced by the approach . Thus, a low value of \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) indicates that the estimated contribution function \(\hat{v}_{\texttt{q}}\) is closer to the true counterpart \(v_{\texttt{true}}\) than a high value.

In `shapr`, we allow for weighting the combinations in the \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) evaluation criterion either uniformly or by using the corresponding Shapley kernel weights (or the sampling frequencies when sampling of coalitions is used). The default is to use uniform weighting, but this can be changed by passing `list(MSEv_uniform_comb_weights = FALSE)` to the `output_args` argument of the `explain()` function.

### Advantage:

An advantage of the \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) criterion is that \(v_\texttt{true}\) is not involved. Thus, we can apply it as an evaluation criterion to real-world data sets where the true Shapley values are unknown.

### Disadvantages:

First, we can only use the \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) criterion to rank the methods and not assess their closeness to the optimum since the minimum value of the \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) criterion is unknown. Second, the criterion evaluates the contribution functions and not the Shapley values.

Olsen et al. (2024) observed a relatively linear relationship between the \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) criterion and the mean absolute error \((\operatorname{MAE})\) between the true and estimated Shapley values in extensive simulation studies where the true Shapley values were known. That is, a method that achieves a low \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) score also tends to obtain a low \(\operatorname{MAE}\) score, and vice versa.

### Confidence intervals

The \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) criterion can be written as \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v} = \frac{1}{N_\text{explain}}\sum_{i=1}^{N_\text{explain}} \operatorname{MSE}_{v,\text{explain }i}\). We can therefore use the central limit theorem to compute an approximate confidence interval for the \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) criterion. We have that \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v} \pm t_{\alpha/2}\frac{\operatorname{SD}(\operatorname{MSE}_{v})}{\sqrt{N_\text{explain}}}\) is a \((1-\alpha/2)\%\) approximate confidence interval for the evaluation criterion, where \(t_{\alpha/2}\) is the \(\alpha/2\) percentile of the \(T_{N_\text{explain}-1}\) distribution. Note that \(N_\text{explain}\) should be large (rule of thumb is at least \(30\)) for the central limit theorem to be valid. The quantities \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) and \(\frac{\operatorname{SD}(\operatorname{MSE}_{v})}{\sqrt{N_\text{explain}}}\) are returned by the `explain()` function in the `MSEv` list of data tables. We can also compute similar approximate confidence interval for \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) criterion for each combination/coalition when only averaging over the observations. However, it does not make sense in the other direction, i.e., when only averaging over the combinations for each observation, as each combination is a different prediction tasks.

### MSEv examples

Start by explaining the predictions by using different methods and combining them into lists.

    # We use more explicands here for more stable confidence intervals
    ind_x_explain_many <- 1:25
    x_train <- data[-ind_x_explain_many, ..x_var]
    y_train <- data[-ind_x_explain_many, get(y_var)]
    x_explain <- data[ind_x_explain_many, ..x_var]

    # Fitting a basic xgboost model to the training data
    model <- xgboost::xgboost(
      x = x_train,
      y = y_train,
      nround = 20,
      verbosity = 0
    )

    # Specifying the phi_0, i.e. the expected prediction without any features
    p0 <- mean(y_train)

    # Independence approach
    explanation_independence <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "independence",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1,
      n_MC_samples = 1e2
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:12
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: independence
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 100
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 25
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_164869d3553c.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.

    # Empirical approach
    explanation_empirical <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "empirical",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1,
      n_MC_samples = 1e2
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:14
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #> • Approach: empirical
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 100
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 25
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_16481e815fdb.rds'
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.

    # Gaussian 1e1 approach
    explanation_gaussian_1e1 <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "gaussian",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1,
      n_MC_samples = 1e1
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:19
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #> • Approach: gaussian
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 10
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 25
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_164844b08ed7.rds'
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.

    # Gaussian 1e2 approach
    explanation_gaussian_1e2 <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "gaussian",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1,
      n_MC_samples = 1e2
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:20
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #> • Approach: gaussian
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 100
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 25
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_16486a5f94d0.rds'
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.

    # Combined approach
    explanation_combined <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = c("gaussian", "empirical", "independence"),
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1,
      n_MC_samples = 1e2
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:20
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #> • Approach: gaussian, empirical, and independence
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 100
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 25
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_1648ac12bcb.rds'
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.

    # Create a list of explanations with names
    explanation_list_named <- list(
      "Ind." = explanation_independence,
      "Emp." = explanation_empirical,
      "Gaus. 1e1" = explanation_gaussian_1e1,
      "Gaus. 1e2" = explanation_gaussian_1e2,
      "Combined" = explanation_combined
    )

We can then compare the different approaches by creating plots of the \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) evaluation criterion.

    # Create the MSEv plots with approximate 95% confidence intervals
    MSEv_plots <- plot_MSEv_eval_crit(explanation_list_named,
      plot_type = c("overall", "coalition", "explicand"),
      CI_level = 0.95
    )
    #> ℹ Showing 10 of 25 observations.

    # 5 plots are made
    names(MSEv_plots)
    #> [1] "MSEv_explicand_bar"        "MSEv_explicand_line_point"
    #> [3] "MSEv_coalition_bar"        "MSEv_coalition_line_point"
    #> [5] "MSEv_bar"

The main plot if interest is the `MSEv_bar`, which displays the \(\operatorname{MSE}_{v}\) evaluation criterion for each method averaged over both the combinations/coalitions and test observations/explicands. However, we can also look at the other plots where we have only averaged over the observations or the coalitions (both as bar and line plots).

    # The main plot of the overall MSEv averaged over both the coalitions and observations
    MSEv_plots$MSEv_bar

    # The MSEv averaged over only the explicands for each coalition
    MSEv_plots$MSEv_coalition_bar

    # The MSEv averaged over only the coalitions for each observation/explicand
    MSEv_plots$MSEv_explicand_bar

    # To see which coalition S each of the `id_coalition` corresponds to,
    # i.e., which features that are conditions on.
    explanation_list_named[[1]]$MSEv$MSEv_coalition[, c("id_coalition", "coalitions")]
    #>     id_coalition coalitions
    #>            <int>     <list>
    #>  1:            2          1
    #>  2:            3          2
    #>  3:            4          3
    #>  4:            5          4
    #>  5:            6        1,2
    #>  6:            7        1,3
    #>  7:            8        1,4
    #>  8:            9        2,3
    #>  9:           10        2,4
    #> 10:           11        3,4
    #> 11:           12      1,2,3
    #> 12:           13      1,2,4
    #> 13:           14      1,3,4
    #> 14:           15      2,3,4

We can specify the `index_x_explain` and `id_coalition` parameters in `plot_MSEv_eval_crit()` to only plot certain test observations and coalitions, respectively.

    # We can specify which test observations or coalitions to plot
    plot_MSEv_eval_crit(explanation_list_named,
      plot_type = "explicand",
      index_x_explain = c(1, 3:4, 6),
      CI_level = 0.95
    )$MSEv_explicand_bar
    #> ℹ Showing 4 of 25 observations.

    plot_MSEv_eval_crit(explanation_list_named,
      plot_type = "coalition",
      id_coalition = c(3, 4, 9, 13:15),
      CI_level = 0.95
    )$MSEv_coalition_bar
    #> ℹ Showing 10 of 25 observations.

We can also alter the plots design-wise as we do in the code below.

    bar_text_n_decimals <- 1
    plot_MSEv_eval_crit(explanation_list_named) +
      ggplot2::scale_x_discrete(limits = rev(levels(MSEv_plots$MSEv_bar$data$Method))) +
      ggplot2::coord_flip() +
      ggplot2::scale_fill_brewer(palette = "Paired") +
      ggplot2::theme_minimal() + # This must be set before other theme calls
      ggplot2::theme(
        plot.title = ggplot2::element_text(size = 10),
        legend.position = "bottom"
      ) +
      ggplot2::geom_text(
        ggplot2::aes(label = sprintf(
          paste("%.", sprintf("%d", bar_text_n_decimals), "f", sep = ""),
          round(MSEv, bar_text_n_decimals)
        )),
        vjust = -0.35, # This number might need altering for different plots sizes
        hjust = 1.1, # This number might need altering for different plots sizes
        color = "black",
        position = ggplot2::position_dodge(0.9),
        size = 4
      )
    #> ℹ Showing 10 of 25 observations.

# Iterative estimation

Iterative estimation is the default when computing Shapley values with six or more features (or feature groups), and can always be manually overridden by setting `iterative = FALSE` in the `explain()` function. The idea behind iterative estimation is to estimate sufficiently accurate Shapley value estimates faster. First, an initial number of coalitions is sampled, then, bootsrapping is used to estimate the variance of the Shapley values. A convergence criterion is used to determine if the variances of the Shapley values are sufficiently small. If the variances are too high, we estimate the number of required samples to reach convergence, and thereby add more coalitions. The process is repeated until the variances are below the threshold. Specifics related to the iterative process and convergence criterion are set through `iterative_args` argument.

The convergence criterion we use is adopted from Covert and Lee (2021), and slightly modified to work for multiple observations

\[ \operatorname{median}_i \left( \frac{ \max_j \hat{\text{sd}}(\hat{\phi}_{ij}) }{ \max_j \hat{\phi}_{ij} - \min_j \hat{\phi}_{ij} } \right) < t \]

where \(\hat{\phi}_{ij}\) is the Shapley value of feature \(j\) for observation \(i\), and \(\text{sd}(\phi_{ij})\) is the its (bootstrap) estimated standard deviation. The default value of \(t\) is 0.02. Below we provide some examples of how to use the iterative estimation procedure.

    library(xgboost)
    library(data.table)

    data("airquality")
    data <- data.table::as.data.table(airquality)
    data <- data[complete.cases(data), ]

    x_var <- c("Solar.R", "Wind", "Temp", "Month", "Day")
    y_var <- "Ozone"

    ind_x_explain <- 1:6
    x_train <- data[-ind_x_explain, ..x_var]
    y_train <- data[-ind_x_explain, get(y_var)]
    x_explain <- data[ind_x_explain, ..x_var]

    # Set seed for reproducibility
    set.seed(123)

    # Fitting a basic xgboost model to the training data
    model <- xgboost::xgboost(
      x = x_train,
      y = y_train,
      nround = 20,
      verbosity = 0
    )

    # Specifying the phi_0, i.e. the expected prediction without any features
    p0 <- mean(y_train)

    # Explanation with iterative computation
    ex <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "gaussian",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1,
      iterative = TRUE,
      iterative_args = list(convergence_tol = 0.1)
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:27
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 32`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 32`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: gaussian
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 5
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_164841296634.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Iterative computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Iteration 1 ───────────────────────────────────────
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 6 of 32 coalitions, 6 new.
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Iteration 2 ───────────────────────────────────────
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 8 of 32 coalitions, 2 new.
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Iteration 3 ───────────────────────────────────────
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 12 of 32 coalitions, 4 new.
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Iteration 4 ───────────────────────────────────────
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 14 of 32 coalitions, 2 new.

# Summary, Printing, and Result Extraction

As shown above, `print(explain_object)` displays the estimated Shapley values from an object created using `explain()`. This is the default behavior of the `print()` method for `shapr` objects.

However, `print.shapr` also includes a `what` argument that controls what is printed. This allows users to also display: - the standard deviations arising from coalition sampling (`what = "shapley_sd"`), and - variants of the MSEv criterion introduced above, using `what = "MSEv"`, `"MSEv_explicand"`, or `"MSEv_coalition"`.

The `summary(explain_object)` function returns a `summary.shapr` object containing a complete list of summary components. When called interactively without assignment (or explicitly printed with `print()`), it displays a nicely formatted summary to the console. When assigned to a variable, the formatted output is suppressed, but the returned object can be used to extract individual components later. Internally, `summary.shapr` calls `get_results()`, which produces this full set of components, including: the parameters used, intermediate Shapley value estimates (and their standard deviations), estimates of all \(v(S)\), and more. See `?get_results` for a full overview of the returned output.

Below, we illustrate these capabilities using the iterative explanation object `ex` computed above.

    # Uses the object ex to illustrate printing and summary functionality
    print(ex) # Prints the estimated Shapley values by default
    #>    explain_id  none Solar.R  Wind  Temp Month   Day
    #>         <int> <num>   <num> <num> <num> <num> <num>
    #> 1:          1  43.1    1.43  4.75 -20.3 -5.46 0.711
    #> 2:          2  43.1   -3.52 -1.31 -16.8 -5.50 1.991
    #> 3:          3  43.1   -1.17 -7.83 -11.2 -4.78 2.224
    #> 4:          4  43.1    9.53 -7.07 -16.6 -4.46 0.247
    #> 5:          5  43.1    8.43 -1.03 -22.1 -4.83 0.989
    #> 6:          6  43.1   -2.66 -7.17 -12.4 -5.18 0.812
    print(ex, what = "shapley_sd") # Prints the estimated standard deviations of the Shapley values
    #>    explain_id  none Solar.R  Wind  Temp Month   Day
    #>         <int> <num>   <num> <num> <num> <num> <num>
    #> 1:          1     0   1.385 2.697 0.720 2.740 0.859
    #> 2:          2     0   0.797 1.224 0.550 1.202 0.602
    #> 3:          3     0   1.278 1.292 0.791 1.005 0.777
    #> 4:          4     0   3.754 2.955 1.078 1.791 1.347
    #> 5:          5     0   2.310 1.904 0.620 1.632 0.718
    #> 6:          6     0   1.024 0.963 0.654 0.751 0.614
    print(ex, what = "MSEv") # Prints the MSEv evaluation criterion
    #>     MSEv MSEv_sd
    #>    <num>   <num>
    #> 1:   176    12.6

    # When called without assignment, summary() prints formatted output to console
    summary(ex)
    #>
    #> ── Summary of Shapley value explanation ──────────────
    #> • Computed with `shapr::explain()` in 3.5 seconds,
    #> started 2026-01-16 12:37:27
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #> • Approach: gaussian
    #> • Procedure: Iterative
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 5
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #> • Number of coalitions used: 14 (of total 32)
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_164841296634.rds'
    #>
    #> ── Convergence info
    #> ✔ Iterative Shapley value estimation stopped at 14 coalitions after 4 iterations, due to:
    #> Standard deviation convergence threshold (0.1) reached: 0.087!
    #>
    #> ── Estimated Shapley values (sd in parentheses)
    #>    explain_id      none      Solar.R         Wind          Temp        Month
    #>         <int>    <char>       <char>       <char>        <char>       <char>
    #> 1:          1 43.09 (0)  1.43 (1.39)  4.75 (2.70) -20.31 (0.72) -5.46 (2.74)
    #> 2:          2 43.09 (0) -3.52 (0.80) -1.31 (1.22) -16.77 (0.55) -5.50 (1.20)
    #> 3:          3 43.09 (0) -1.17 (1.28) -7.83 (1.29) -11.19 (0.79) -4.78 (1.01)
    #> 4:          4 43.09 (0)  9.53 (3.75) -7.07 (2.96) -16.64 (1.08) -4.46 (1.79)
    #> 5:          5 43.09 (0)  8.43 (2.31) -1.03 (1.90) -22.15 (0.62) -4.83 (1.63)
    #> 6:          6 43.09 (0) -2.66 (1.02) -7.17 (0.96) -12.44 (0.65) -5.18 (0.75)
    #>            Day
    #>         <char>
    #> 1: 0.71 (0.86)
    #> 2: 1.99 (0.60)
    #> 3: 2.22 (0.78)
    #> 4: 0.25 (1.35)
    #> 5: 0.99 (0.72)
    #> 6: 0.81 (0.61)
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Estimated MSEv
    #>
    #> Estimated MSE of v(S) = 176 (with sd = 13)

    # When assigned, it returns a summary.shapr object with all components available for extraction
    summary_ex <- summary(ex) # print(summary_ex) also provides the formatted output

    summary_ex$shapley_est # The estimated Shapley values
    #>    explain_id   none Solar.R    Wind    Temp   Month     Day
    #>         <int>  <num>   <num>   <num>   <num>   <num>   <num>
    #> 1:          1 43.086  1.4286  4.7521 -20.315 -5.4611 0.71096
    #> 2:          2 43.086 -3.5184 -1.3111 -16.773 -5.5042 1.99097
    #> 3:          3 43.086 -1.1714 -7.8251 -11.193 -4.7817 2.22354
    #> 4:          4 43.086  9.5350 -7.0722 -16.640 -4.4607 0.24681
    #> 5:          5 43.086  8.4310 -1.0295 -22.146 -4.8326 0.98870
    #> 6:          6 43.086 -2.6600 -7.1738 -12.442 -5.1770 0.81207
    summary_ex$shapley_sd # The estimated standard deviations of the Shapley values
    #>    explain_id  none Solar.R   Wind    Temp   Month     Day
    #>         <int> <num>   <num>  <num>   <num>   <num>   <num>
    #> 1:          1     0 1.38523 2.6970 0.71961 2.73982 0.85914
    #> 2:          2     0 0.79651 1.2244 0.54988 1.20189 0.60213
    #> 3:          3     0 1.27829 1.2924 0.79077 1.00546 0.77693
    #> 4:          4     0 3.75405 2.9552 1.07837 1.79060 1.34699
    #> 5:          5     0 2.30995 1.9036 0.61982 1.63183 0.71767
    #> 6:          6     0 1.02353 0.9635 0.65412 0.75063 0.61376
    summary_ex$timing_summary$total_time_secs # Total computation time in seconds
    #> [1] 3.4887
    summary_ex$parameters$n_MC_samples # Number of Monte Carlo samples used
    #> [1] 1000

    summary_ex$parameters$gaussian.mu # Estimated mean vector (Gaussian approach)
    #> [1] 184.2381   9.9181  78.4381   7.3429  16.6190
    summary_ex$parameters$gaussian.cov_mat # Estimated covariance matrix (Gaussian approach)
    #>           Solar.R     Wind     Temp   Month      Day
    #> Solar.R 8378.0678 -41.1072 284.0966 -9.1882 -42.7738
    #> Wind     -41.1072  13.0369 -17.3205 -1.0274   1.7137
    #> Temp     284.0966 -17.3205  86.6908  4.4734 -16.0623
    #> Month     -9.1882  -1.0274   4.4734  1.9967  -1.7143
    #> Day      -42.7738   1.7137 -16.0623 -1.7143  71.3535

    # Alternatively, use get_results() to get the same components without printing the summary
    res_ex <- get_results(ex)

    # You may also extract individual summary components directly using get_results()
    get_results(ex, what = "shapley_sd")
    #>    explain_id  none Solar.R   Wind    Temp   Month     Day
    #>         <int> <num>   <num>  <num>   <num>   <num>   <num>
    #> 1:          1     0 1.38523 2.6970 0.71961 2.73982 0.85914
    #> 2:          2     0 0.79651 1.2244 0.54988 1.20189 0.60213
    #> 3:          3     0 1.27829 1.2924 0.79077 1.00546 0.77693
    #> 4:          4     0 3.75405 2.9552 1.07837 1.79060 1.34699
    #> 5:          5     0 2.30995 1.9036 0.61982 1.63183 0.71767
    #> 6:          6     0 1.02353 0.9635 0.65412 0.75063 0.61376
    get_results(ex, what = "dt_vS")
    #> Index: <id_coalition>
    #>     id_coalition p_hat1_1 p_hat1_2 p_hat1_3 p_hat1_4 p_hat1_5 p_hat1_6
    #>            <num>    <num>    <num>    <num>    <num>    <num>    <num>
    #>  1:            1   43.086   43.086   43.086   43.086   43.086   43.086
    #>  2:            2   20.672   23.742   25.557   18.441   20.289   18.358
    #>  3:            3   49.810   48.921   48.867   48.283   47.242   47.945
    #>  4:            4   46.513   38.602   41.850   57.125   56.020   34.916
    #>  5:            5   40.838   36.789   24.698   23.180   34.346   19.999
    #>  6:            6   36.619   36.375   36.366   36.024   35.761   35.990
    #>  7:            7   20.501   24.199   25.712   17.099   19.566   16.705
    #>  8:            8   20.906   24.090   26.848   23.487   25.621   19.646
    #>  9:            9   27.235   18.286   18.735   26.061   24.861   18.078
    #> 10:           10   41.170   29.508   23.319   31.382   43.829   16.671
    #> 11:           11   40.285   30.598   23.124   30.100   44.174   15.267
    #> 12:           12   27.371   18.251   19.601   26.170   24.858   18.345
    #> 13:           13   22.901   19.603   21.205   16.351   19.159   14.798
    #> 14:           14   24.201   17.970   20.338   24.695   24.498   16.445

# Parallelization

The `shapr` package supports parallelization of the Shapley value estimation process through the `future` package. The parallelization is conducted over batches of `v(S)`-values. We therefore start by describing this batch computing.

## Batch computation

The computational complexity of Shapley value based explanations grows fast in the number of features, as the number of conditional expectations one needs to estimate in the Shapley formula grows exponentially. As outlined above, the estimating of each of these conditional expectations is also computationally expensive, typically requiring estimation of a conditional probability distribution, followed by Monte Carlo integration. These computations are not only heavy for the CPU, they also require a lot of memory (RAM), which typically is a limited resource. By doing the most resource-hungry computations (the computation of v(S)) in sequential batches with different feature subsets \(S\), the memory usage can be significantly reduced. The user can control the number of batches by setting the two arguments `extra_computation_args$max_batch_size` (defaults to 10) and `extra_computation_args$min_n_batches` (defaults to 10).

## Parallelized computation

In addition to reducing the memory consumption, the batch computing allows the computations within each batch to be performed in parallel. The parallelization in `shapr::explain()` is handled by the `future_apply` package which builds on the `future` environment. These packages work on all OSes, allow the user to decide the parallelization backend (multiple R processes or forking), work directly with HPC clusters, and also supports progress updates for the parallelized task via the associated `progressr` package (see Verbosity and progress updates).

Note that, since it takes some time to duplicate data into different processes/machines when running in parallel, it is not always preferable to run `shapr::explain()` in parallel, at least not with many parallel sessions/workers. Parallelization also increases the memory consumption proportionally, so you may want to limit the number of workers for that reason too. Below is a basic example of a parallelization with two workers.

    library(future)
    future::plan(multisession, workers = 2)

    explanation_par <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "empirical",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:32
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 32`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 32`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: empirical
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 5
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_16485b97d4aa.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 32 of 32 coalitions.

    future::plan(sequential) # To return to non-parallel computation

# Verbosity and progress updates

The `verbose` argument controls the verbosity of the output while running `explain()`, and allows one or more of the strings `"basic"`, `"progress"`, `"convergence"`, `"shapley"` and `"vS_details"`. `"basic"` (default) displays basic information about the computation which is being performed, `"progress` displays information about where in the calculation process the function currently is, `"convergence"` displays information on how close to convergence the Shapley value estimates are (for iterative estimation), `"shapley"` displays (intermediate) Shapley value estimates and standard deviations + the final estimates, while `"vS_details"` displays information about the `v(S)` estimates for some of the approaches. If the user wants no printout, the argument can be set to `NULL`.

In addition, progress updates for the computation of the `v(S)` values are (optionally) provided through the R-package `progressr`. This gives the user full control over the visual appearance of these progress updates. The main reason for providing this separate progress update feature is that it integrates seamlessly with the parallelization framework `future` used by `shapr` (see Parallelization), and apparently is the only framework allowing progress updates also for parallelized tasks. These progress updates can be used in combination with, or independently of, the `verbose` argument.

These progress updates via `progressr` can be enabled for the current R-session by running the command `progressr::handlers(local=TRUE)`, before calling `explain()`. To use progress updates for only a single call to `explain()`, one can wrap the call using `progressr::with_progress` as follows: `progressr::with_progress({ shapr::explain() })` The default appearance of the progress updates is a basic ASCII-based horizontal progress bar. Other variants can be chosen by passing different strings to `progressr::handlers()`, some of which require additional packages. If you are using RStudio, the progress can be displayed directly in the GUI with `progressr::handlers('rstudio')` (requires the `rstudioapi` package). If you are running Windows, you may use the pop-up GUI progress bar `progressr::handlers('handler_winprogressbar')`. A wrapper for progressbar of the flexible `cli` package, is also available `progressr::handlers('cli')`.

For a full list of all progression handlers and the customization options available with `progressr`, see the `progressr` vignette. A full code example of using `progressr` with `shapr` is shown below:

    library(progressr)
    progressr::handlers(global = TRUE)
    handlers("cli")
    # If no progression handler is specified, the txtprogressbar is used
    # Other progression handlers:
    # progressr::handlers('progress') # requires the 'progress' package
    # progressr::handlers('rstudio') # requires the 'rstudioapi' package
    # progressr::handlers('handler_winprogressbar') # Window only
    ex_progress <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "empirical",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1
    )

    # ■■■■■■■■■■■                       32% | Estimating v(S) ETA:  2s

# Advanced usage

## Combined approach

In addition to letting the user select one of the five aforementioned approaches for estimating the conditional distribution of the data (i.e. `approach` equals either `"gaussian"`, `"copula"`, `"empirical"`, `"ctree"`, `"vaeac"`, `"categorical"`) or `"timeseries"`, the package allows the user to combine the given approaches. The `'regression_surrogate'` and `'regression_separate` approaches are not supported for the combined approach. To simplify the usage, the flexibility is restricted such that the same approach is used when conditioning on the same number of features. This is also in line Aas, Jullum, and Løland (2021, sec. 3.4).

This can be done by setting `approach` equal to a character vector, where the length of the vector is one less than the number of features in the model. Consider a situation where you have trained a model that consists of 10 features, and you would like to use the `"empirical"` approach when you condition on 1-3 features, the `"copula"` approach when you condition on 4-5 features, and the `"gaussian"` approach when conditioning on 6 or more features. This can be applied by simply passing `approach = c(rep("empirical", 3), rep("copula", 2), rep("gaussian", 4))`, i.e. `approach[i]` determines which method to use when conditioning on `i` features. Conditioning on all features needs no approach as that is given by the complete prediction itself, and should thus not be part of the vector.

The code below exemplifies this approach for a case where there are four features, using `"empirical", "copula"` and `"gaussian"` when conditioning on respectively 1, 2 and 3 features.

    library(xgboost)
    library(data.table)

    data("airquality")
    data <- data.table::as.data.table(airquality)
    data <- data[complete.cases(data), ]

    x_var <- c("Solar.R", "Wind", "Temp", "Month")
    y_var <- "Ozone"

    ind_x_explain <- 1:6
    x_train <- data[-ind_x_explain, ..x_var]
    y_train <- data[-ind_x_explain, get(y_var)]
    x_explain <- data[ind_x_explain, ..x_var]

    # Set seed for reproducibility
    set.seed(123)

    # Fitting a basic xgboost model to the training data
    model <- xgboost::xgboost(
      x = x_train,
      y = y_train,
      nround = 20,
      verbosity = 0
    )

    # Specifying the phi_0, i.e. the expected prediction without any features
    p0 <- mean(y_train)

    # Use the combined approach
    explanation_combined <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = c("empirical", "copula", "gaussian"),
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:39
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: empirical, copula, and gaussian
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_1648480f066b.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.
    # Plot the resulting explanations for observations 1 and 6, excluding
    # the no-covariate effect
    plot(explanation_combined, bar_plot_phi0 = FALSE, index_x_explain = c(1, 6))

As a second example using `"ctree"` to condition on 1 and 2 features, and `"empirical"` when conditioning on 3 features:

    # Use the combined approach
    explanation_combined <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = c("ctree", "ctree", "empirical"),
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:41
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: ctree, ctree, and empirical
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_16481434ab19.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.

## Explain groups of features

In some cases, especially when the number of features is very large, it may be more appropriate to explain predictions in terms of groups of features instead of single features, see (Jullum, Redelmeier, and Aas (2021)) for intuition and real-world examples. Explaining predictions in terms of groups of features is very easy using `shapr`:

    # Define the feature groups
    group_list <- list(
      A = c("Temp", "Month"),
      B = c("Wind", "Solar.R")
    )

    # Use the empirical approach
    explanation_group <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "empirical",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1,
      group = group_list
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:44
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_groups = 4`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_groups = 4`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: empirical
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #>
    #> • Number of group-wise Shapley values: 2
    #>
    #> • Feature groups: A: {"Temp", "Month"}; B: {"Wind",
    #> "Solar.R"}
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_164832b60af4.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 4 of 4 coalitions.
    # Prints the group-wise explanations
    explanation_group
    #>    explain_id  none     A      B
    #>         <int> <num> <num>  <num>
    #> 1:          1  43.1 -29.0  14.06
    #> 2:          2  43.1 -17.0  -8.65
    #> 3:          3  43.1 -12.5 -14.35
    #> 4:          4  43.1 -21.5  -4.53
    #> 5:          5  43.1 -26.4   4.39
    #> 6:          6  43.1 -20.4  -7.15
    # Plots the group-wise explanations
    plot(explanation_group, bar_plot_phi0 = TRUE, index_x_explain = c(1, 6))

## Explain custom models

`shapr` currently natively supports explanation of predictions from models fitted with the following functions:

- `stats::lm`
- `stats::glm`
- `ranger::ranger`
- `mgcv::gam`
- `xgboost::xgboost`/`xgboost::xgb.train`
- `workflows::workflow`

Any continuous response regression model or binary classification model of these model classes, can be explained with the package directly as exemplified above, while we give an example for the `workflows::workflow` in the `tidymodels`/`workflows` section. Moreover, essentially any feature dependent prediction model can be explained by the package by specifying two (or one) simple additional functions for your model.

The first function is `predict_model`, taking the model and data (as a `matrix` or `data.frame/data.table`) as input and outputting the corresponding prediction as a numeric vector. The second (optional, but highly recommended) function is `get_model_specs`, taking the model as input and outputting a list with the following elements: labels (vector with the feature names to compute Shapley values for), classes (a named vector with the labels as names and the class type as elements), factor_levels (a named list with the labels as names and vectors with the factor levels as elements (NULL if the feature is not a factor)). The `get_model_specs` function is used to check that the data passed to `explain` have the correct format in terms of the necessary feature columns being available and having the correct class/attributes. It is highly recommended to do such checks in order to ensure correct usage of `explain`. If, for some reason, such checking is not desirable, one does not have to provide the `get_model_specs` function. This will, however, throw a warning that all feature consistency checking against the model is disabled.

Once the above functions are created, you can explain predictions from this model as before by passing the functions through the input arguments `predict_model` and `get_model_specs` of `explain()`.

These functions can be made general enough to handle all supported model types of that class, or they can be made minimal, possibly only allowing explanation of the specific version of the model class at hand. Below we give examples of both full support versions of these functions and a minimal version which skips the `get_model_specs` function. We do this for the `gbm` model class from the `gbm` package, fitted to the same airquality data set as used above.

    library(gbm)
    #> Loaded gbm 2.2.2
    #> This version of gbm is no longer under development. Consider transitioning to gbm3, https://github.com/gbm-developers/gbm3

    formula_gbm <- as.formula(paste0(y_var, "~", paste0(x_var, collapse = "+")))
    # Fitting a gbm model
    set.seed(825)
    model_gbm <- gbm::gbm(
      formula_gbm,
      data = cbind(x_train, Ozone = y_train),
      distribution = "gaussian"
    )

    #### Full feature versions of the three required model functions ####
    MY_predict_model <- function(x, newdata) {
      if (!requireNamespace("gbm", quietly = TRUE)) {
        stop("The gbm package is required for predicting train models")
      }
      model_type <- ifelse(
        x$distribution$name %in% c("bernoulli", "adaboost"),
        "classification",
        "regression"
      )
      if (model_type == "classification") {
        predict(x, as.data.frame(newdata), type = "response", n.trees = x$n.trees)
      } else {
        predict(x, as.data.frame(newdata), n.trees = x$n.trees)
      }
    }
    MY_get_model_specs <- function(x) {
      feature_specs <- list()
      feature_specs$labels <- labels(x$Terms)
      m <- length(feature_specs$labels)
      feature_specs$classes <- attr(x$Terms, "dataClasses")[-1]
      feature_specs$factor_levels <- setNames(vector("list", m), feature_specs$labels)
      feature_specs$factor_levels[feature_specs$classes == "factor"] <- NA # model object doesn't contain factor levels info
      return(feature_specs)
    }

    # Compute the Shapley values
    set.seed(123)
    p0 <- mean(y_train)
    explanation_custom <- explain(
      model = model_gbm,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "empirical",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1,
      predict_model = MY_predict_model,
      get_model_specs = MY_get_model_specs
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:46
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <gbm>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: empirical
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_16483d7736c0.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.

    # Plot results
    plot(explanation_custom, index_x_explain = c(1, 6))

    #### Minimal version of the custom model setup ####
    # Note: Working only for this exact version of the model class
    # Avoiding to define get_model_specs skips all feature
    # consistency checking between your data and model
    MY_MINIMAL_predict_model <- function(x, newdata) {
      predict(x, as.data.frame(newdata), n.trees = x$n.trees)
    }

    # Compute the Shapley values
    set.seed(123)
    explanation_custom_minimal <- explain(
      model = model_gbm,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "empirical",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1,
      predict_model = MY_MINIMAL_predict_model
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:50
    #> ℹ You passed a model to `shapr::explain()` which is
    #>   not natively supported, and did not supply a
    #>   `get_model_specs` function to `shapr::explain()`.
    #>   Consistency checks between model and data are
    #>   therefore disabled.
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #> • Model class: <gbm>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #> • Approach: empirical
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_1648a806475.rds'
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.

    # Plot results
    plot(explanation_custom_minimal, index_x_explain = c(1, 6))

## Tidymodels and workflows

In this section, we demonstrate how to use `shapr` to explain `tidymodels` models fitted using `workflows`. In the example above, we directly used the `xgboost` package to fit the `xgboost` model. However, we can also fit the `xgboost` model using the `tidymodels` package. These fits will be identical, as `tidymodels` calls `xgboost` internally, which we demonstrate in the example below. Note that we can replace `xgboost` (i.e., `parsnip::boost_tree`) with any other fitted `tidymodels` model in the `workflows` procedure outlined below.

    # Fitting a basic xgboost model to the training data using tidymodels
    set.seed(123) # Set the same seed as above
    all_var <- c(y_var, x_var)
    train <- data[-ind_x_explain, ..all_var]

    # Fitting the `tidymodels` model using `workflows`
    model_tidymodels <- parsnip::fit(
      workflows::add_recipe(
        workflows::add_model(
          workflows::workflow(),
          parsnip::boost_tree(trees = 20, engine = "xgboost", mode = "regression")
        ),
        recipes::recipe(Ozone ~ ., data = train)
      ),
      data = train
    )

    # # We can also specify the same model using pipes `%>%` by (if pipes are installed/loaded)
    # model_tidymodels <-
    #   workflows::workflow() %>%
    #   workflows::add_model(parsnip::boost_tree(trees = 20, engine = "xgboost", mode = "regression")) %>%
    #   workflows::add_recipe(recipes::recipe(Ozone ~ ., data = train)) %>%
    #   parsnip::fit(data = train)

    # See that the output of the two models are identical
    all.equal(predict(model_tidymodels, x_train)$.pred, predict(model, as.matrix(x_train)))
    #> [1] TRUE

    # Create the Shapley values for the tidymodels version
    explanation_tidymodels <- explain(
      model = model_tidymodels,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "empirical",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:55
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <workflow>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: empirical
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_164832b4b12f.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.

    # See that the Shapley value explanations are identical too
    all.equal(explanation$shapley_values_est, explanation_tidymodels$shapley_values_est)
    #> [1] TRUE

## The parameters of the `vaeac` approach

The `vaeac` approach is a very flexible method that supports mixed data. The main parameters are the number of layers in the networks (`vaeac.depth`), the width of the layers (`vaeac.width`), the number of dimensions in the latent space (`vaeac.latent_dim`), the activation function between the layers in the networks (`vaeac.activation_function`), the learning rate in the ADAM optimizer (`vaeac.lr`), the number of `vaeac` models to initiate to remedy poorly initiated model parameter values (`vaeac.n_vaeacs_initialize`), and the number of learning epochs (`vaeac.epochs`). Call `?shapr::setup_approach.vaeac` for a more detailed description of the parameters.

There are additional extra parameters which can be set by including a named list in the call to the `explain()` function. For example, we can change the batch size to 32 by including `vaeac.extra_parameters = list(vaeac.batch_size = 32)` as a parameter in the call to the `explain()` function. See `?shapr::vaeac_get_extra_para_default` for a description of the possible extra parameters to the `vaeac` approach. The main parameters are directly entered to the `explain()` function, while the extra parameters are included in a named list called `vaeac.extra_parameters`.

    explanation_vaeac <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "vaeac",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1,
      n_MC_samples = 100,
      vaeac.width = 16,
      vaeac.depth = 2,
      vaeac.epochs = 3,
      vaeac.n_vaeacs_initialize = 2
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:37:58
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: vaeac
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 100
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_16481433a18c.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.

We can look at the training and validation errors for the trained `vaeac` model and see that `vaeac.epochs = 3` is likely too few epochs, as it still seems like the `vaeac` model is learning.

    # Look at the training and validation errors.
    plot_vaeac_eval_crit(list("Vaeac 3 epochs" = explanation_vaeac), plot_type = "method")

### Early stopping

If we are uncertain about the choice of `vaeac.epochs`, we can rather use `vaeac` with early stopping. We will then set `vaeac.epochs` to a large number, which will act as a maximum number of allowed epochs, and in the `vaeac.extra_parameters` list we set `vaeac.epochs_early_stopping` to the number of epochs we allow the `vaeac` model to not improve its validation score. That is, if `vaeac.epochs_early_stopping = 2`, then `vaeac` will stop the training procedure if there has been no improvement in the validation score for `2` consecutive epochs, or if `vaeac.epochs` is reached. Note that if using early stopping and progress updates simultaneously, then the estimated timer remaining will obviously be incorrect if early stopping is applied. Furthermore, a value of `2` is too low for real world applications, but we set it so low here to make the vignette faster to build.

    explanation_vaeac_early_stop <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "vaeac",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1,
      n_MC_samples = 100,
      vaeac.width = 16,
      vaeac.depth = 2,
      vaeac.epochs = 1000, # Set it to a large number
      vaeac.n_vaeacs_initialize = 2,
      vaeac.extra_parameters = list(vaeac.epochs_early_stopping = 2)
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:38:14
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 16`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: vaeac
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 100
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 4
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_16486390b378.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 16 of 16 coalitions.

Can compare with the previous version and see that the results are more stable now.

    # Look at the training and validation errors.
    plot_vaeac_eval_crit(
      list("Vaeac 3 epochs" = explanation_vaeac, "Vaeac early stopping" = explanation_vaeac_early_stop),
      plot_type = "method"
    )

Can also compare the \(MSE_{v}\) evaluation scores.

    plot_MSEv_eval_crit(list("Vaeac 3 epochs" = explanation_vaeac, "Vaeac early stopping" = explanation_vaeac_early_stop))

## Continued computation

In this section, we demonstrate how to continue to improve estimation accuracy with additional coalition samples, from a previous Shapley value computation based on `shapr::explain()` with the iterative estimation procedure. This can be done either by passing an existing object of class `shapr`, or by passing a string with the path to the intermediately saved results. The latter is found at `SHAPR_OBJ$saving_path`, defaults to a temporary folder, and is updated after each iteration. This can be particularly handy for long-running computations.

    # First we run the computation with the iterative estimation procedure for a limited number of coalition samples
    library(xgboost)
    library(data.table)

    data("airquality")
    data <- data.table::as.data.table(airquality)
    data <- data[complete.cases(data), ]

    x_var <- c("Solar.R", "Wind", "Temp", "Month", "Day")
    y_var <- "Ozone"

    ind_x_explain <- 1:6
    x_train <- data[-ind_x_explain, ..x_var]
    y_train <- data[-ind_x_explain, get(y_var)]
    x_explain <- data[ind_x_explain, ..x_var]

    # Set seed for reproducibility
    set.seed(123)

    # Fitting a basic xgboost model to the training data
    model <- xgboost::xgboost(
      x = x_train,
      y = y_train,
      nround = 20,
      verbosity = 0
    )

    # Specifying the phi_0, i.e. the expected prediction without any features
    p0 <- mean(y_train)

    # Initial explanation computation
    ex_init <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "gaussian",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1,
      max_n_coalitions = 20,
      iterative = TRUE
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:38:39
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #> • Approach: gaussian
    #> • Procedure: Iterative
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 5
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_16482bbd289e.rds'
    #>
    #> ── Iterative computation started ──
    #>
    #> ── Iteration 1 ───────────────────────────────────────
    #> ℹ Using 6 of 32 coalitions, 6 new.
    #>
    #> ── Iteration 2 ───────────────────────────────────────
    #> ℹ Using 8 of 32 coalitions, 2 new.
    #>
    #> ── Iteration 3 ───────────────────────────────────────
    #> ℹ Using 12 of 32 coalitions, 4 new.
    #>
    #> ── Iteration 4 ───────────────────────────────────────
    #> ℹ Using 18 of 32 coalitions, 6 new.
    #>
    #> ── Iteration 5 ───────────────────────────────────────
    #> ℹ Using 20 of 32 coalitions, 2 new.

    # Using the ex_init object to continue the computation with 4 more coalition samples
    ex_further <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "gaussian",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1,
      max_n_coalitions = 24,
      iterative_args = list(convergence_tol = 0.005), # Decrease the convergence threshold
      prev_shapr_object = ex_init
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:38:46
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #> • Approach: gaussian
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 5
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_16482466e6e8.rds'
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 24 of 32 coalitions.

    ex_further_path <- get_results(ex_further, what = "saving_path") # Gets path to the saved intermediate estimation object

    # Using the ex_init object to continue the computation for the remaining coalition samples
    # but this time using the path to the saved intermediate estimation object
    ex_even_further <- explain(
      model = model,
      x_explain = x_explain,
      x_train = x_train,
      approach = "gaussian",
      phi0 = p0,
      seed = 1,
      max_n_coalitions = NULL,
      prev_shapr_object = ex_further_path
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain()` at 2026-01-16 12:38:47
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 32`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 32`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <xgboost>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: gaussian
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 5
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 6
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_1648664da377.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 26 of 32 coalitions.

# Explaining a forecasting model using `explain_forecast`

`shapr` provides a specific function, `explain_forecast`, to explain forecasts from time series models, at one or more steps into the future. The main difference compared to `explain` is that the data is supplied as (set of) time series, in addition to index arguments (`train_idx` and `explain_idx`) specifying which time points that represents the train and explain parts of the data. See `?explain_forecast` for more information.

To demonstrate how to use the function, 500 observations are generated which follow an AR(1) structure, i.e. \(y_t = 0.5 y_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t\). To this data an arima model of order (2, 0, 0) is fitted, and we therefore would like to explain the forecasts in terms of the two previous lags of the time series. This is is specified through the argument `explain_y_lags = 2`. Note that some models may also put restrictions on the amount of data required to make a forecast. The AR(2) model we used there, for instance, requires two previous time point to make a forecast.

In the example, two separate forecasts, each three steps ahead, are explained. To set the starting points of the two forecasts, `explain_idx` is set to `499:500`. This means that one forecast of \(t = (500, 501, 502)\) and another of \(t = (501, 502, 503)\), will be explained. In other words, `explain_idx` tells `shapr` at which points in time data was available up until, when making the forecast to explain.

In the same way, `train_idx` denotes the points in time used to estimate the conditional expectations used to explain the different forecasts. Note that since we want to explain the forecasts in terms of the two previous lags (`explain_y_lags = 2`), the smallest value of `train_idx` must also be 2, because at time \(t = 1\) there was only a single observation available.

Since the data is stationary, the mean of the data is used as value of `phi0` (i.e. \(\phi_0\)). This can however be chosen differently depending on the data and application.

For a multivariate model such as a VAR (Vector AutoRegressive model), it may be more interesting to explain the impact of each variable, rather than each lag of each variable. This can be done by setting `group_lags = TRUE`.

    # Simulate time series data with AR(1)-structure.
    set.seed(1)
    data_ts <- data.frame(Y = arima.sim(list(order = c(1, 0, 0), ar = .5), n = 500))
    data_ts <- data.table::as.data.table(data_ts)

    # Fit an ARIMA(2, 0, 0) model.
    arima_model <- arima(data_ts, order = c(2, 0, 0))

    # Set prediction zero as the mean of the data for each forecast point.
    p0_ar <- rep(mean(data_ts$Y), 3)

    # Explain forecasts from points t = 499 and t = 500.
    explain_idx <- 499:500

    explanation_forecast <- explain_forecast(
      model = arima_model,
      y = data_ts,
      train_idx = 2:498,
      explain_idx = 499:500,
      explain_y_lags = 2,
      horizon = 3,
      approach = "empirical",
      phi0 = p0_ar,
      group_lags = FALSE
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain_forecast()` at 2026-01-16
    #> ℹ Feature names extracted from the model contain
    #>   `NA`.
    #>   Consistency checks between model and data are
    #>   therefore disabled.
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 4`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 4`.
    #> Registered S3 method overwritten by 'quantmod':
    #>   method            from
    #>   as.zoo.data.frame zoo
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <Arima>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: empirical
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 2
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 2
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_16487a824e91.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 4 of 4 coalitions.
    explanation_forecast
    #>    explain_idx horizon   none    Y.1     Y.2
    #>          <int>   <int>  <num>  <num>   <num>
    #> 1:         499       1 0.0402  0.505 -0.0766
    #> 2:         500       1 0.0402 -0.362  0.0250
    #> 3:         499       2 0.0402  0.505 -0.0766
    #> 4:         500       2 0.0402 -0.362  0.0250
    #> 5:         499       3 0.0402  0.505 -0.0766
    #> 6:         500       3 0.0402 -0.362  0.0250

Note that for a multivariate model such as a VAR (Vector AutoRegressive model), or for models also including several exogenous variables, it may be more informative to explain the impact of each variable, rather than each lag of each variable. This can be done by setting `group_lags = TRUE`. This does not make sense for this model, however, as that would result in decomposing the forecast into a single group.

We now give a more hands-on example of how to use the `explain_forecast` function. Say that we have an AR(2) model which describes the change over time of the variable `Temp` in the dataset `airquality`. It seems reasonable to assume that the temperature today should affect the temperature tomorrow. To a lesser extent, we may also suggest that the temperature today should also have an impact on that of the day after tomorrow.

We start by building our AR(2) model, naming it `model_ar_temp`. This model is then used to make a forecast of the temperature of the day that comes after the last day in the data, this forecast starts from index 153.

    data_ts2 <- data.table::as.data.table(airquality)

    model_ar_temp <- ar(data_ts2$Temp, order = 2)

    predict(model_ar_temp, n.ahead = 2)$pred
    #> Time Series:
    #> Start = 154
    #> End = 155
    #> Frequency = 1
    #> [1] 71.081 71.524

First, we pass the model and the data as `model` and `y`. Since we have an AR(2) model, we want to explain the forecasts in terms of the two previous lags, which we specify with `explain_y_lags = 2`. Then, we let `shapr` know which time indices to use as training data through the argument `train_idx`. We use `2:152`, meaning that we skip the first index, as we want to explain the two previous lags. Letting the training indices go up until 152 means that every point in time except the first and last will be used as training data.

The last index, 153 is passed as the argument `explain_idx`, which means that we want to explain a forecast made from time point 153 in the data. The argument `horizon` is set to 2 in order to explain a forecast of length 2.

The argument `phi0` is set to the mean of the time series, and is repeated two times. Each value of `phi0` is the baseline for each forecast horizon. In our example, we assume that given no effect from the two lags, the temperature would just be the average during the observed period. Finally, we opt to not group the lags by setting `group_lags` to `FALSE`. This means that lag 1 and 2 will be explained separately. Grouping lags may be more interesting to do in a model with multiple variables, as it is then possible to explain each variable separately.

    explanation_forecast <- explain_forecast(
      model = model_ar_temp,
      y = data_ts2[, "Temp"],
      train_idx = 2:152,
      explain_idx = 153,
      explain_y_lags = 2,
      horizon = 2,
      approach = "empirical",
      phi0 = rep(mean(data$Temp), 2),
      group_lags = FALSE
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain_forecast()` at 2026-01-16
    #> ℹ Feature names extracted from the model contain
    #>   `NA`.
    #>   Consistency checks between model and data are
    #>   therefore disabled.
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 4`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 4`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <ar>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: empirical
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 2
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 1
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_1648711dcc01.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 4 of 4 coalitions.

    print(explanation_forecast)
    #>    explain_idx horizon  none Temp.1 Temp.2
    #>          <int>   <int> <num>  <num>  <num>
    #> 1:         153       1  77.8  -6.58 -0.134
    #> 2:         153       2  77.8  -5.98 -0.288

The results are presented per value of `explain_idx` and forecast horizon. We can see that the mean temperature was around 77.9 degrees. At horizon 1, the first lag in the model caused it to be 6.6 degrees lower, and the second lag had just a minor effect. At horizon 2, the first lag has a slightly smaller negative impact, and the second lag has a slightly larger impact.

It is also possible to explain a forecasting model which uses exogenous regressors. The previous example is expanded to use an ARIMA(2,0,0) model with `Wind` as an exogenous regressor. Since the exogenous regressor must be available for the predicted time points, the model is just fit on the 151 first observations, leaving two observations of `Wind` to be used as exogenous values during the prediction phase.

    data_ts3 <- data.table::as.data.table(airquality)

    data_fit <- data_ts3[seq_len(151), ]

    model_arimax_temp <- arima(data_fit$Temp, order = c(2, 0, 0), xreg = data_fit$Wind)

    newxreg <- data_ts3[-seq_len(151), "Wind", drop = FALSE]

    predict(model_arimax_temp, n.ahead = 2, newxreg = newxreg)$pred
    #> Time Series:
    #> Start = 152
    #> End = 153
    #> Frequency = 1
    #> [1] 77.500 76.381

The `shapr` package can then explain not only the two autoregressive lags, but also the single lag of the exogenous regressor. In order to do so, the `Wind` variable is passed as the argument `xreg`, and `explain_xreg_lags` is set to 1. Notice how only the first 151 observations are used for `y` and all 153 are used for `xreg`. This makes it possible for `shapr` to not only explain the effect of the first lag of the exogenous variable, but also the contemporary effect during the forecasting period.

    explanation_forecast <- explain_forecast(
      model = model_ar_temp,
      y = data_fit[, "Temp"],
      xreg = data_ts3[, "Wind"],
      train_idx = 2:150,
      explain_idx = 151,
      explain_y_lags = 2,
      explain_xreg_lags = 1,
      horizon = 2,
      approach = "empirical",
      phi0 = rep(mean(data_fit$Temp), 2),
      group_lags = FALSE
    )
    #>
    #> ── Starting `shapr::explain_forecast()` at 2026-01-16
    #> ℹ Feature names extracted from the model contain
    #>   `NA`.
    #>   Consistency checks between model and data are
    #>   therefore disabled.
    #> ℹ `max_n_coalitions` is `NULL` or larger than
    #>   `2^n_features = 32`, and is therefore set to
    #>   `2^n_features = 32`.
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Explanation overview ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> • Model class: <ar>
    #>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #>
    #> • Approach: empirical
    #>
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #>
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #>
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 5
    #>
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 1
    #>
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_164826d854d2.rds'
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ── Main computation started ──
    #>
    #>
    #>
    #> ℹ Using 32 of 32 coalitions.

    print(explanation_forecast)
    #>    explain_idx horizon  none Temp.1 Temp.2 Wind.1 Wind.F1 Wind.F2
    #>          <int>   <int> <num>  <num>  <num>  <num>   <num>   <num>
    #> 1:         151       1    78 -0.678 -0.673  -1.27  0.4934      NA
    #> 2:         151       2    78  0.400 -0.501  -1.47  0.0659  -0.474

    summary(explanation_forecast)
    #>
    #> ── Summary of Shapley value explanation ──────────────
    #> • Computed with `shapr::explain_forecast()` in 2.9
    #> seconds, started 2026-01-16 12:38:54
    #> • Model class: <ar>
    #> • v(S) estimation class: Monte Carlo integration
    #> • Approach: empirical
    #> • Procedure: Non-iterative
    #> • Number of Monte Carlo integration samples: 1000
    #> • Number of feature-wise Shapley values: 5
    #> • Number of observations to explain: 1
    #> • Number of coalitions used: 32 (of total 32)
    #> • Computations (temporary) saved at:
    #> '/tmp/Rtmpravdkd/shapr_obj_164826d854d2.rds'
    #>
    #> ── Estimated Shapley values
    #>    explain_idx horizon   none Temp.1 Temp.2 Wind.1 Wind.F1 Wind.F2
    #>          <int>   <int> <char> <char> <char> <char>  <char>  <char>
    #> 1:         151       1  77.96  -0.68  -0.67  -1.27    0.49      NA
    #> 2:         151       2  77.96   0.40  -0.50  -1.47    0.07   -0.47

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