team_name: "Predictive Science Inc."
team_abbr: "PSI"
model_name: "Dynamics of Interacting Community Epidemics"
model_abbr: "DICE"
model_version: "1.0"
model_contributors: [
  {
    "name": "Michal Ben-Nun",
    "affiliation": "Predictive Science Inc",
    "email": "mbennun@predsci.com"
  },
  {
    "name": "James Turtle",
    "affiliation": "Predictive Science Inc",
    "email": "jturtle@predsci.com"
  },
  {
    "name": "Pete Riley",
    "affiliation": "Predictive Science Inc",
    "email": "pete@predsci.com"
  }
]
website_url: "https://www.predsci.com/usa-flu-hosp/"
license: "CC-BY-4.0"
citation: "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007013, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009230"
team_funding: "CSTE/CDC: Development of Forecasts and/or Scenario Projections for Influenza to Inform Public Health Decision Making (Cooperative Agreement number NU38OT000297)."
designated_model: true
methods: "A stochastic/deterministic, SIR model that stratifies by disease severity and includes compartments for hospitalizations. Parameter posteriors are inferred using an MCMC procedure."
data_inputs: "HHS COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries, US Census population, NASA NLDAS-2 specific humidity, SEDAC population density, approximated state school schedules."
methods_long: "Deterministic fit of a compartmental SIR model to daily hospitalization incidence profiles, followed by stochastic simulations using the inferred parameter distributions. The 'I' compartments are divided by disease severity into Mild (non-clinical) and Clinical.  A portion of clinical cases will proceed to the hospitalization compartment. And then again there is a probability of moving from hospitalization to death. The model fit is inferred by MCMC procedure, run forward at a daily cadence, and then aggregated to weekly incidence to produce the forecast. The initial model does not include climate data, school schedules, or coupling between states, but we will provide updates as those factors are incorporated into the model."
ensemble_of_models: false
ensemble_of_hub_models: false
source_notes: "Model outputs and metadata adapted from https://github.com/cdcepi/Flusight-forecast-data."
