team_name: "Flusight"
team_abbr: "Flusight"
model_name: "Baseline model using reported weekly admissions"
model_abbr: "baseline"
model_version: "1.0"
model_contributors: [
  {
    "name": "Evan L. Ray",
    "affiliation": "University of Massachusetts, Amherst",
    "email": "elray@umass.edu"
  },
  {
    "name": "Nutcha Wattanachit",
    "affiliation": "University of Massachusetts, Amherst"
  },
  {
    "name": "Ryan Tibshirani",
    "affiliation": "UC Berkeley"
  }
]
website_url: "https://github.com/cdcepi/Flusight-base"
license: "CC-BY-4.0"
team_funding: "This model's development is funded by the US CDC grant number U01IP001122. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health."
designated_model: true
methods: "Simple time-series baseline model predicting forward the most recent week of reported laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions."
data_inputs: "Weekly incident flu hospitalizations from HealthData.gov COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries."
methods_long: "The median prediction at all future horizons
  is the most recent observed weekly incidence.  To get a distribution around
  the median, we look at how much incidence has changed from week to week in
  the past, and we allow for the possibility that similar changes will occur
  again in the future.

  In more technical detail, forecasts of incidence are generated through the
  following procedure: 1) Calculate first differences of incidence; 2) Collect
  all first differences and their negatives; 3) Sample first differences in
  incidence and add to the most recent observed incidence; 4) Enforce that the
  mean of the predictive distribution for incidence is equal to the most recent
  observed incidence; 5) truncate the predictive distribution for incidence at
  0."
ensemble_of_models: false
ensemble_of_hub_models: false
source_notes: "Model outputs and metadata adapted from https://github.com/cdcepi/Flusight-forecast-data."
