# MacKay’s ITILA Examples

    library(gghinton)
    library(ggplot2)

I first came across Hinton diagrams in David MacKay’s excellent book Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms (ITILA, Cambridge University Press, 2003). Here we recreate some examples from Chapter 2, visualising discrete probability distributions over characters and character pairs in English text.

## The MacKay colour scheme

MacKay’s convention in this chapter is the inverse of the default `gghinton` style: white squares on a black background, with square area proportional to probability. It’s simple enough to change this by updating the theme.

MacKay’s figures use unsigned data (all probabilities are non-negative), so `scale_fill_hinton(values = c(unsigned = "white"))` combined with a black panel background reproduces his style:

    theme_mackay <- function() {
      theme_hinton() +
        theme(
          panel.background = element_rect(fill = "black", colour = NA),
          panel.border = element_rect(colour = "grey30", fill = NA,
                                      linewidth = 0.4),
          axis.text = element_text(size = 12, family = "mono")
        )
    }

## Figure 2.1: discrete unigram probabilities

MacKay’s Figure 2.1 gives the unigram probabilities (estimated from the Linux FAQ), which can be reproduced directly:

    chars27     <- c(letters, " ")
    axis_labels <- c(letters, "_")

    # Probabilities from MacKay ITILA Table / Figure 2.1
    p_char <- c(
      a = 0.0575, b = 0.0128, c = 0.0263, d = 0.0285, e = 0.0913,
      f = 0.0173, g = 0.0133, h = 0.0313, i = 0.0599, j = 0.0006,
      k = 0.0084, l = 0.0335, m = 0.0235, n = 0.0596, o = 0.0689,
      p = 0.0192, q = 0.0008, r = 0.0508, s = 0.0567, t = 0.0706,
      u = 0.0334, v = 0.0069, w = 0.0119, x = 0.0073, y = 0.0164,
      z = 0.0007, ` ` = 0.1928
    )

    # Display as a single-column Hinton diagram (1x27 matrix, one column)
    unigram_mat <- matrix(p_char, nrow = length(p_char), ncol = 1,
                          dimnames = list(chars27, "p"))
    df_uni <- matrix_to_hinton(unigram_mat)

    ggplot(df_uni, aes(x = col, y = row, weight = weight)) +
      geom_hinton() +
      scale_fill_hinton(values = c(unsigned = "white")) +
      scale_y_continuous(breaks = seq_along(chars27),
                         labels = rev(axis_labels),
                         expand = c(0.02, 0.02)) +
      scale_x_continuous(breaks = NULL) +
      coord_fixed() +
      theme_mackay() +
      theme(axis.text.y = element_text(size = 8, family = "mono")) +
      labs(
        x        = NULL,
        y        = NULL
      )

ITILA fig 2.1 original

## Figure 2.2: English letter bigrams

MacKay’s Figure 2.2 shows the joint probability distribution \(P(x, y)\) over the 27 x 27 = 729 possible bigrams (letter pairs) in an English text – the 26 letters plus space (shown as `_`). The source in the book is The Frequently Asked Questions Manual for Linux; we use the full text of Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland (Lewis Carroll, 1865; Project Gutenberg item 11, public domain) instead, shipped as the `alice_bigrams` dataset in this package.

    # alice_bigrams[x, y] = count of character x immediately followed by y
    bg_prob <- alice_bigrams / sum(alice_bigrams)

    # Axis labels: a-z then "-" for space (MacKay's convention)
    chars27     <- c(letters, " ")
    axis_labels <- c(letters, "_")

    df_bg <- matrix_to_hinton(bg_prob)

    ggplot(df_bg, aes(x = col, y = row, weight = weight)) +
      geom_hinton() +
      scale_fill_hinton(values = c(unsigned = "white")) +
      # x: column 1 = 'a', column 27 = '-' (space)
      scale_x_continuous(
        breaks = seq_along(chars27),
        labels = axis_labels,
        expand = c(0.02, 0.02)
      ) +
      # y: row 1 (matrix row 'a') maps to highest y; labels reversed so 'a' is at top
      scale_y_continuous(
        breaks = seq_along(chars27),
        labels = rev(axis_labels),
        expand = c(0.02, 0.02)
      ) +
      coord_fixed() +
      theme_mackay() +
      labs(
        title    = "English letter bigrams: joint probability P(x, y)",
        subtitle = "Recreating MacKay ITILA Figure 2.2 (source: Alice in Wonderland)",
        x        = "y (second character)",
        y        = "x (first character)"
      )

ITILA fig 2.2 original

    # Fraction of the 729 cells with at least one observed bigram
    mean(alice_bigrams > 0)
    #> [1] 0.6255144
    # Total bigrams observed
    sum(alice_bigrams)
    #> [1] 269108

## Figure 2.3: Conditional probability distributions

Normalising each row of the joint bigram matrix by its row sum gives P(y|x) – the distribution over second characters given the first. Normalising each column by its column sum gives P(x|y) – the distribution over first characters given the second. MacKay’s Figure 2.3 displays both as Hinton diagrams side by side.

    # P(y|x): row-normalise -- each row sums to 1
    row_sums <- rowSums(alice_bigrams)
    cond_yx  <- alice_bigrams / row_sums          # M[x, y] = P(y | first = x)

    # P(x|y): column-normalise -- each column sums to 1
    col_sums <- colSums(alice_bigrams)
    cond_xy  <- sweep(alice_bigrams, 2, col_sums, "/")  # M[x, y] = P(x | second = y)

    # Combine into one data frame for faceting
    df_yx <- matrix_to_hinton(cond_yx)
    df_xy <- matrix_to_hinton(cond_xy)
    df_yx$panel <- "(a) P(y | x)"
    df_xy$panel <- "(b) P(x | y)"
    df_cond <- rbind(df_yx, df_xy)

    ggplot(df_cond, aes(x = col, y = row, weight = weight)) +
      geom_hinton() +
      scale_fill_hinton(values = c(unsigned = "white")) +
      scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq_along(chars27), labels = axis_labels,
                         expand = c(0.02, 0.02)) +
      scale_y_continuous(breaks = seq_along(chars27), labels = rev(axis_labels),
                         expand = c(0.02, 0.02)) +
      coord_fixed() +
      facet_wrap(~ panel, ncol = 2) +
      theme_mackay() +
      labs(
        title    = "English letter bigrams: conditional probability P(x|y) and P(y|x)",
        subtitle = "Recreating MacKay ITILA Figure 2.3",
        x        = "y (second character)",
        y        = "x (first character)"
      )

ITILA fig 2.3 original

## Figure 2.5: Bill and Fred’s urn problem

MacKay introduces this joint distribution to illustrate Bayesian inference (ITILA Exercise 2.3).

Setup: An urn contains \(N = 10\) balls. Fred draws \(u\), the number of black balls, from a uniform prior \(P(u) = 1/11\) for \(u = 0, 1, \ldots, 10\). Bill then draws \(N = 10\) balls with replacement and observes \(n_B\) black balls. The joint distribution is:

\[P(u, n_B) = P(u) \cdot P(n_B | u, N) \cdot \mathrm{Binomial}(n_B; N = 10, p = u/10)\]

    N       <- 10L
    u_vals  <- 0:N   # number of black balls in the urn (Fred's choice)
    nB_vals <- 0:N   # number of black balls observed in N draws (Bill's data)

    # Rows = u (0..10), columns = n_B (0..10)
    joint_mat <- outer(u_vals, nB_vals, function(u, nB) {
      (1 / (N + 1)) * dbinom(nB, size = N, prob = u / N)
    })
    rownames(joint_mat) <- u_vals
    colnames(joint_mat) <- nB_vals

    df_urn <- matrix_to_hinton(joint_mat)

    ggplot(df_urn, aes(x = col, y = row, weight = weight)) +
      geom_hinton() +
      scale_fill_hinton(values = c(unsigned = "white")) +
      # row 1 of the matrix (u = 0) maps to the highest y, so labels are reversed
      scale_x_continuous(breaks = 1:(N + 1L), labels = nB_vals,
                         expand = c(0.04, 0.04)) +
      scale_y_continuous(breaks = 1:(N + 1L), labels = rev(u_vals),
                         expand = c(0.04, 0.04)) +
      coord_fixed() +
      theme_mackay() +
      labs(
        title    = "Joint probability P(u, n_B | N = 10)",
        subtitle = "Recreating MacKay ITILA Figure 2.5",
        x        = expression(n[B]~~"(observed black balls)"),
        y        = expression(u~~"(black balls in urn)")
      )

The dominant diagonal reflects that \(n_B\) is most probable near \(u\), with the corners (\(u\) = 0, \(n_B\) = 0) and (\(u\) = 10, \(n_B\) = 10) being certain outcomes. This structure is immediately legible in the Hinton diagram but would be hard to read in a table of 121 numbers.

ITILA fig 2.5 original